“It is not really difficult to construct a series of inferences, each dependent upon its predecessor and each simple in itself. If, after doing so, one simply knocks out all the central inferences and presents one’s audience with the starting point and the conclusion, one may produce a startling, though possibly a meretricious, effect.” – Sir Arthur Conan Doyle in The Adventure of the Dancing Men

Having been a media professional for four years, my greatest regret has been that nobody cares for patterns that emerge out of events. Sometime in mid-August this year, I was discussing the content of two major international weeklies with a friend - even as we were demolishing a particularly appetizing plate of vegetable salad at Just Around the Corner. That particular week, the middle few pages of the magazines dealt with Islamic fundamentalism in various parts of the world. I found that the articles, reported from at least five different regions, were all one-sided and heavily editorialized. I thought it amounted to a global propaganda against Islam and expressed my anxiety about this. Referring to the numerous anti-Taliban mails I had received in the past few years, I predicted a war in Afghanistan sometime in the near future. (Of course, I did not predict the September 11 attacks, but the aftermath was quite foreseeable.) My friend, though a lady-Tintin of sorts, however didn’t think much of my speculation. “Speculation is no science,” my straight-talking friend argued. We left the argument there, thanks to the abundance of the salad on the plate and the scarcity of the time at hand.

Now, here’s a sequence of events that I want you to consider. This is one of my many theories yet to be proved before the public eye.

Late 1998 – Dr. Subramanyam Swamy claims that there is security threat in the border –1999 – Jayalalitha voices concerns about the security situation at the Line of Control – Admiral Vishnu Baghavat dismissed without any proper reason given, he alleges Defence Minister George Fernandes is supporting terrorism in neighbouring countries – Jayalalitha goes for George’s throat, wants his removal – Vajpayee refuses – Reports say Jayalalitha demanded the Defence Portfolio and the PM rejected it– Subramanyam Swamy arranges the now-famous tea-party attended by all opposition leaders and Jayalalitha – AIADMK decides to withdraw support – the Govt. falls by just one vote – Congress readies to assume office – Press and TV reports claim Jayalalitha is sure to assume office as Defence Minister and she herself says she can’t deny the possibility – Congress fails in its bid thanks mainly to the opposition by Sharad Pawar and Mulayam Singh Yadav, both ex-Defence Ministers, to Sonia Gandhi becoming PM – elections announced – BJP, supported by erstwhile enemies under the umbrella of NDA, comes back to power – suddenly an infiltration at the LOC is discovered – Kargil sector flashes in the headlines – war-drummers go on a frenzy – the famous Kargil conflict begins… ...ending with the President’s unusual call for modernization of the army and Pervez Musharraf taking over as Pakistan’s Chief Executive.

I selected this at random. So, any relevance to the present conflict is unintentional. I shall attempt to put forward my arguments in defence of speculation in the coming weeks and look forward to your comments on the message board.